Rethinking urbanization and economic development: a synopsis

Abstract

The relationship between urbanization and economic development is one of the great puzzles of our time. Although history reveals a positive connection between the level of urbanization and average incomes - within and between countries - this doesn't mean that this relationship will hold into the future, or that urbanization is mainly responsible for rising prosperity.(1) Over the next few decades virtually all the world's population growth will occur in cities.(2) As a result, by 2050 two-thirds of all people will be living in cities. Most urban growth will happen in Asia and Africa, which is why it is vital to anticipate the impact of urbanization on people???s living standards and well-being in these regions, and for governments to take appropriate actions to enable long-term progress.(3) Yet, understanding and acting upon this relationship requires research, knowledge and practical capabilities that bridge multiple academic disciplines, stakeholders and policy silos. This is invariably very challenging. In the meantime, recent events have revealed some of the drawbacks and downsides of rapid urbanization. COVID-19 showed the devastating effects of disease spreading among dense concentrations of people, particularly in crowded and unplanned settlements lacking basic services and open space.(4) The pandemic's aftershocks include disrupted global supply chains and inflated food prices, which have aggravated hunger, hardship and social unrest among many poor urban communities.