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A comparison of South African national HIV incidence estimates: a critical appraisal of different methods

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dc.date.accessioned 2015-08-05 en
dc.date.accessioned 2021-02-09T15:23:36Z
dc.date.available 2021-02-09T15:23:36Z
dc.date.issued 2015-08-25 en
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11910/1847
dc.description.abstract The interpretation of HIV prevalence trends is increasingly difficult as antiretroviral treatment programs expand. Reliable HIV incidence estimates are critical to monitoring transmission trends and guiding an effective national response to the epidemic. We used a range of methods to estimate HIV incidence in South Africa: (i) an incidence testing algorithm applying the Limiting-Antigen Avidity Assay (LAg-Avidity EIA) in combination with antiretroviral drug and HIV viral load testing; (ii) a modelling technique based on the synthetic cohort principle; and (iii) two dynamic mathematical models, the EPP/Spectrum model package and the Thembisa model. Overall, the different incidence estimation methods were in broad agreement on HIV incidence estimates among persons aged 15-49 years in 2012. The assay-based method produced slightly higher estimates of incidence, 1.72% (95% CI 1.38 - 2.06), compared with the mathematical models, 1.47%(95% CI 1.23 - 1.72) in Thembisa and 1.52% (95% CI 1.43 - 1.62) in EPP/Spectrum, and slightly lower estimates of incidence compared to the synthetic cohort, 1.9% (95% CI 0.8 - 3.1) over the period from 2008 to 2012. Among youth aged 15-24 years, a declining trend in HIV incidence was estimated by all three mathematical estimation methods. en
dc.format.medium Print en
dc.publisher Public Library Science en
dc.subject HIV/AIDS en
dc.subject HIV/AIDS PREVALENCE en
dc.title A comparison of South African national HIV incidence estimates: a critical appraisal of different methods en
dc.type Journal Article en
dc.description.version Y en
dc.ProjectNumber N/A en
dc.Volume 10(7) en
dc.BudgetYear 2015/16 en
dc.ResearchGroup Office of the CEO en
dc.ResearchGroup HIV/AIDS, STIs and TB en
dc.SourceTitle PLoS One en
dc.PlaceOfPublication San Francisco, USA en
dc.ArchiveNumber 8747 en
dc.URL http://ktree.hsrc.ac.za/doc_read_all.php?docid=15650 en
dc.PageNumber Online en
dc.outputnumber 7496 en
dc.bibliographictitle Rehle, T., Johnson, L., Hallett, T., Mahy, M., Kim, A., Odido, H., Onoya, D., Jooste, S., Shisana, O., Puren, A., Parekh, B. & Stover, J. (2015) A comparison of South African national HIV incidence estimates: a critical appraisal of different methods. <i>PLoS One</i>. 10(7):Online. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11910/1847 en
dc.publicationyear 2015 en
dc.contributor.author1 Rehle, T. en
dc.contributor.author2 Johnson, L. en
dc.contributor.author3 Hallett, T. en
dc.contributor.author4 Mahy, M. en
dc.contributor.author5 Kim, A. en
dc.contributor.author6 Odido, H. en
dc.contributor.author7 Onoya, D. en
dc.contributor.author8 Jooste, S. en
dc.contributor.author9 Shisana, O. en
dc.contributor.author10 Puren, A. en
dc.contributor.author11 Parekh, B. en
dc.contributor.author12 Stover, J. en


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