System dynamics model linking demand, employment movement between sectors and the economy for the South African construction sector

Abstract

Several factors can influence the dynamics in demand and supply of skills for all employment sectors. Here the variable drivers for construction sector employment are taken to involve the demand for employment, choice of employment and the state of the economy. A dynamical model based on longitudinal data obtained from the Construction Education and Training Authority (CETA) of South Africa is used to predict the dynamics of future employment trends in the construction sector of South Africa. This paper argues for a system dynamics approach as both a conceptual and methodological tool for predicting employment trends. The relationship between economic growth, demand and employment movement between sectors are shown to impact employment in the construction industry. Knowledge of how these factors impact employment could help policy makers in their efforts to reduce unemployment.