A barometer of electoral change?: towards a better understanding of voter behavioural dynamics in the context of municipal by-elections in South Africa

Abstract

The study aims to inform and guide the Electoral Commission with its plans, policies, and practices by evaluating by-election turnout in South Africa for the period 2016-2023. In this study, the country's socio-economic and political landscape is examined together with political factors that might impact voting behaviour. To understand what is driving turnout, specific drivers (such as political competitiveness, demographics, crime and election timing) are examined.