El Nino-induced drought impacts on reservoir water resources in South Africa

Abstract

ENSO phenomenon is associated with below average rainfall and influences the climate regime of southern Africa. With the advent of climate change, drought frequencies and magnitudes have worsened in the developing world and this in turn negatively impacts the natural environment and communities' livelihoods. This study evaluated the relationship between El Nino induced drought and reservoir water levels over the Albasini Dam Catchment (ADC) areas in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Standardised indices (i.e., SPI and SSI) were used to define drought events over the study area. Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall was used for trends analysis as well as correlation and wavelet coherence to evaluate the relationship between variables of interest. There exists a relationship between El Nino-induced drought event and reservoir water levels. This was shown by the correlation between drought indices and reservoir water levels with the coefficient of determination being stronger at the 12th timescale (i.e., 0.743 and 0.59) compared to the 6th timescale (i.e., 0.07 and 0.44) for both precipitation and streamflow indices, respectively. Wavelet analysis further showed that there existed a phased relationship between the two variables. Although there are other factors that may affect reservoir water resources, these study findings show that El Nino-induced drought also negatively affect water resources. Therefore, this study recommends the development of multidimensional and multiscale management strategies to minimize drought impacts and adaptation in the region.