Analysis of the relationship between maize and crude oil price with reference to economic shocks in South Africa

Abstract

South Africa deals with food security amidst economic shocks, notably in maize, a pivotal commodity in South Africa. Post maize marketing board’s abolition, prices responded to market dynamics, including oil price impacts. Presently, rising interest rates outweigh oil in food price fluctuations. Limited research exists on the link between oil and maize prices during crises in South Africa. This study examined this gap using quantitative methods on data spanning 1997–2022. Findings suggest a long-term impact of oil price hikes on maize prices. The study highlights maize’s swift reaction during crises like the 2007/2009 global financial crisis, 2022 Russia Ukraine conflict, and Covid-19, causing a notable surge in prices.