The brick in the ballot box: the relative influence of democratic discontent and identity politics in the 2024 elections in South Africa

Abstract

During the 2024 National and Provincial Elections, the newly established uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) performed unexpectedly well, leading to a national coalition and raising concerns about a rise in ethnic identity in electoral politics. This article explores the relationship between electoral outcomes, attitudes toward democracy, and identity politics (class, race, and ethnicity), using South African Social Attitudes Survey (SASAS) data combined with electoral results at voting district level. It investigates whether voter dissatisfaction with the status quo influenced MKP support as a form of protest vote, or if the party’s success was more reflective of identity politics. Regression analysis shows that MKP support was most strongly predicted by ethno-racial identity and provincial residence. Regime evaluation effects on MKP support, such as political trust and satisfaction with democracy, lost significance once identity and geography were considered. This suggests the MKP’s electoral success was driven more by identity-based mobilization than protest sentiment.