Impact of COVID-19 on household hunger and socio-economic inequality in South Africa: a comparative analysis using NIDS-CRAM (2020-2021) and NFNSS 2022 data

Abstract

Food insecurity is a persistent socio-economic challenge in South Africa that was sharply exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study compares household hunger during the acute pandemic period and the early recovery phase and examines how socio-economic inequalities in food security evolved. We analyzed five waves of the National Income Dynamics Study—Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey (NIDS-CRAM, 2020–2021) and the National Food and Nutrition Security Survey (NFNSS, 2022). A harmonized 7-day household hunger indicator was recoded as “no household hunger” and modeled using survey-weighted logistic regression. Socio-economic-related inequality in being hunger-free was assessed using the Erreygers Concentration Index and decomposition analysis, with sensitivity checks for alternative socio-economic status (SES) specifications and model diagnostics. Hunger peaked at 26.47% in Wave 1 of NIDS-CRAM and declined to 16.07% by Wave 5, before falling to 8.19% in NFNSS. Improvements were uneven; several provinces, notably the Northern Cape, Free State and North West, remained comparatively food insecure. Across all waves and NFNSS, higher SES was strongly associated with a lower risk of hunger, and living in informal or traditional dwellings and larger household size were consistently associated with a higher risk of hunger. Erreygers indices were positive in all periods, indicating pro-rich inequality in food security that intensified during the pandemic and narrowed only modestly post-pandemic, with SES the dominant contributor. Although household hunger declined below pandemic peaks, the recovery in food security has been unequal and remains strongly patterned by socio-economic status and place, underscoring the need for structural, equity-focused policy responses.