Surveys: scientific predictions or navel gazing?

Abstract

The aim of this article is to interrogate the nature of survey research as a scientific tool in general and to trace the development of its use in political and government settings, especially in South Africa to predict election results. The study strives to establish whether or not some pre-election surveys in South Africa rely on inadequate methodology, or else succumb to political pressure to produce predictions that favor a certain party. Attention is directed to issues of reliability and the validity of survey results that can predict the outcomes of elections with a high degree of accuracy.