Mathematical epidemiological modeling and analysis of monkeypox dynamism with non-pharmaceutical intervention using real data from United Kingdom

Abstract

In this study, a mathematical model for studying the dynamics of monkeypox virus transmission with non-pharmaceutical intervention is created, examined, and simulated using real-time data. Positiveness, invariance, and boundedness of the solutions are thus examined as fundamental features of mathematical models. The equilibrium points and the prerequisites for their stability are achieved. The basic reproduction number and thus the virus transmission coefficient R0 were determined and quantitatively used to study the global stability of the model's steady state. Furthermore, this study considered the sensitivity analysis of the parameters according to R0. The most sensitive variables that are important for infection control are determined using the normalized forward sensitivity index. Data from the United Kingdom collected between May and August 2022, which also aid in demonstrating the usefulness and practical application of the model to the spread of the disease in the United Kingdom, were used. In addition, using the Caputo-Fabrizio operator, Krasnoselskii's fixed point theorem has been used to analyze the existence and uniqueness of the solutions to the suggested model. The numerical simulations are presented to assess the system dynamic behavior. More vulnerability was observed when monkeypox virus cases first appeared recently as a result of numerical calculations. We advise the policymakers to consider these elements to control monkeypox transmission. Based on these findings, we hypothesized that another control parameter could be the memory index or fractional order.