Mathematical epidemiological modeling and analysis of monkeypox dynamism with non-pharmaceutical intervention using real data from United Kingdom

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dc.date.accessioned 2023-03-08T19:01:38Z
dc.date.available 2023-03-08T19:01:38Z
dc.date.issued 2023-03-08 en
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11910/19998
dc.description.abstract In this study, a mathematical model for studying the dynamics of monkeypox virus transmission with non-pharmaceutical intervention is created, examined, and simulated using real-time data. Positiveness, invariance, and boundedness of the solutions are thus examined as fundamental features of mathematical models. The equilibrium points and the prerequisites for their stability are achieved. The basic reproduction number and thus the virus transmission coefficient R0 were determined and quantitatively used to study the global stability of the model's steady state. Furthermore, this study considered the sensitivity analysis of the parameters according to R0. The most sensitive variables that are important for infection control are determined using the normalized forward sensitivity index. Data from the United Kingdom collected between May and August 2022, which also aid in demonstrating the usefulness and practical application of the model to the spread of the disease in the United Kingdom, were used. In addition, using the Caputo-Fabrizio operator, Krasnoselskii's fixed point theorem has been used to analyze the existence and uniqueness of the solutions to the suggested model. The numerical simulations are presented to assess the system dynamic behavior. More vulnerability was observed when monkeypox virus cases first appeared recently as a result of numerical calculations. We advise the policymakers to consider these elements to control monkeypox transmission. Based on these findings, we hypothesized that another control parameter could be the memory index or fractional order. en
dc.format.medium Print en
dc.subject BACTERIAL AND VIRUS DISEASES en
dc.subject UNITED KINGDOM en
dc.title Mathematical epidemiological modeling and analysis of monkeypox dynamism with non-pharmaceutical intervention using real data from United Kingdom en
dc.type Journal Article en
dc.description.version Y en
dc.ProjectNumber ZBBBBB en
dc.Volume 11 en
dc.BudgetYear 2022/23 en
dc.ResearchGroup Impact Centre en
dc.SourceTitle Frontiers in Public Health en
dc.ArchiveNumber 9812697 en
dc.URL http://ktree.hsrc.ac.za/doc_read_all.php?docid=26554 en
dc.PageNumber Online en
dc.outputnumber 14201 en
dc.bibliographictitle Ngungu, M., Addai, E., Adeniji, A., Adam, U.M. & Oshinubi, K. (2023) Mathematical epidemiological modeling and analysis of monkeypox dynamism with non-pharmaceutical intervention using real data from United Kingdom. Frontiers in Public Health. 11:Online. en
dc.publicationyear 2023 en
dc.contributor.author1 Ngungu, M. en
dc.contributor.author2 Addai, E. en
dc.contributor.author3 Adeniji, A. en
dc.contributor.author4 Adam, U.M. en
dc.contributor.author5 Oshinubi, K. en


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